Tag Archives: moore’s law

Netbooks, Moore’s Law And Which New App Will Come for Rescue?

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The rise of Netbooks, of which 21 million units* will be sold in 2009, may put in jeopardy the progression of Moore’s Law, as netbooks cannibalize sales of laptops. As a result of Moore’s Law, the price of a mid-range PC has not changed much since long, but every year the power of the machine you buy doubles the one available a year before. This exponential growth in performance can be easily tracked in the amount of storage that you get each year for a $25 SD card (8GB in 2008 vs 4GB in 2007) or for a $100 hard drive (1TB in 2008 vs 500GB in 2007). For microprocessors the rule is shifting from doubling clock speed, to doubling the number of cores every 12-18 months. This geometrical progression results in a laptop in 2018 with 256 cores and 32 TB solid-state drive.

Nebooks are driving Moore’s Law in a different direction. A Netbook has the power of a PC of 3-4 years ago, just at a fraction of the cost. And the reason netbooks replace laptops is that they can run the same basic applications that most people use: web browsing, email, writing docs or Skype. Although conceived as an ideal second ultraportable computer for road warriors, netbooks could become the prime PC for basic use in the office and at home for many in these times of recession.

Software, and in particular Windows, have driven the evolution of the PC hardware with “hungrier” software versions every few years. But Vista failed to bring any breakthrough features compared to Windows XP, and netbooks are benefiting from that.

What do software developers have in their roadmaps that will need 256 cores in ten years? Video editing, media encoding or photo processing software need powerful CPUs, but unless the future bring us an OS with disruptive user interfaces with 3D virtual reality, HD, plus voice and gesture detection, it is difficult to imagine why we will need 256 cores in a laptop or desktop PC.

What is sure is that Multi-Core CPUs fit nicely with server virtualization, and that will make data centers which host the cloud more cost-efficient. The demand for multi-core processors for servers will sure drive the CPU market, but will it be able to do it at the same pace as desktops were doing before? If we are to believe in the success of the cloud, not only the value is shifting from the OS to the Cloud, also the demand for stronger processors is.

We could well end up in 2018 with 256-core servers in the data centers and ultra small low-cost dual-core devices in our pockets connected to the cloud.

* The Economist: Less is Moore

Update:
Intel could report soon the first quarterly loss in 21 years. Even if they say Atom margins are similar to those of the high-end processors, there is always the doubt if cannibalization has anything to do with the loss. On the other side AMD says they will not address the market for netbook processors, instead putting all eggs on the high-end CPUs that will power cloud servers. Will we see the 256-core CPUs somewhere else than in servers?

Telecom at the Speed of Moore’s Law

While the IT industry has Moore’s law in their DNA, the Telecom industry (both telcos and vendors) have not yet been able to embrace the concept and many analyst keep raising doubts about the sustainability of Telecommunications decreasing margins.

Microprocessors, hard-drives and memory cards double its performance/cost ratio every year. The price of an 8GB SD card was $50 last year. Now you can get a 16GB SD card for the same money. The price of a mid-range laptop has been just under $1000 for many years, only that each year you get a substantially better machine.

The Telecom industry has not been able to find the trick. Voice has been the key revenue generator service for ages. With voice revenues clearly declining, the industry is only now, beginning to switch to fix monthly fee models with a cap on voice minutes. People use the phone more and more. So the focus of telcos is now to keep the monthly fee price level, but give more minutes for the same fee, instead of reducing tariffs. The model also applies to broadband. Mobile broadband is capped, but telcos will aim at sustaining the monthly fee price, and focus on adopting more performing technology that will enable to increase the volume cap every year while slightly increasing the monthly fee. On fixed broadband the game is not capping but increasing the bandwidth. If you plot the increase of broadband bandwidth over the past years the growth is also exponential, and telcos should not focus on capping, but on making sure the technology enables them to increase bandwidth every certain time.

Moore’s Law is the self-fulfilling prophecy that keeps the dynamism of the IT industry and a sustainable market. Consumers and enterprises are now used to renew their PCs even before those are 4 years old, so in mature markets the demand does not seem to decrease, but at least sustain. Add the next billion of PCs in emerging countries like China, India or south east Asia and judge if the industry is still healthy.

As IT and Telecom converge, can Moore’s Law bring the same dynamism to the Telecom vendors and operators? Will they be able to keep the pace?