Disruption Matters

The Earth on your Palm

Found via TechCrunch, Google keeps producing great stuff, and “organizing World’s information” for us. Google Earth for iPhone (and iPod Touch) puts literally the entire blue planet on your handset. Enriched by links to Panoramio and Wikipedia, and fully using the iPhone user experience, these apps will soon make GPS Navigators vendors like TomTom or Garmin worry.

Definitively iPhone, powered by this kind of applications, is much more than a mobile phone.

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Does Google know too much about you?

Larry Page, co-founder of Google, just landed in Spain to receive the Principe de Asturias Prize, the Spanish version of the Nobel Prize. In his dialog with the press, Larry said that, working in Search, Google aims to be more and more intelligent, know more and more, gather more information and develop more intelligent computers. Artificial Intelligence is their next target.

Is this funny video an exaggeration or is it what Larry and Sergei really aim at?

Know everything about you and those around you.
Decide and act on your behalf.
Suggest new initiatives.

Isn’t life so much easier thanks to Google?

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Apple Vs. Nokia: Less is More

While Nokia posted a 30.5% drop in earnings in the quarter ending on 30 September, Steve Jobs proudly announced to analysts that 6.9 million 3G iPhone units were sold in the same quarter, outselling  even RIM’s Blackberry 6.1 million units.

While Nokia blames price cutting for their profit decline, Apple says that their iPhone helped push net income up 26% to $1.14 billion.

While Nokia sells their phones worldwide in more than 140 countries, iPhone is currently sold in only 51, targeting 70 by year-end.

While 159 different Symbian models were shipped in the previous quarter, only one Apple model was shipped.

Only one quarter after launching the 3G iPhone, Apple is ranked third by revenues among smartphone vendors, just behind Nokia and Samsung, and ahead of SonyEricsson and LG.

In Steve Jobs words, Apple’s mobile phone strategy focuses on “software and user experience“. It is the usability, stupid. That is the magic why a phone without MMS, video recording, videocall or a memory card slot still rocks.

Nokia downplayed Apple’s impact in the mobile phone market when iPhone was launched. Now the financial numbers confirm the revolution anticipated by all the headlines and hype iPhone generated.

Anyone bet that Android and iPhone will outsell Symbian by end 2009?

Posted in Digital Lifestyle | 6 Comments »

Handsets Two Horse Race

Al Ries and Jack Trout wrote it in many of their marketing best-sellers: “In the long run, every market becomes a  two horse race”. Jack Welch, legend ex-CEO of GE, made popular his rule of closing every business unit where GE was not number one or number two.

Mobile handsets market is not different, and in each segment expect in the long-run a one-two race. Here are my bets for the winning horses:

Business segment: Blackberry and a distant second Windows Mobile. RIM’s devices are trusted by companies to provide secure access to email, intranet, enterprise directories, sync with MS Exchange calendar and address book. Not to name a great user experience for mobile email. This segment is an opportunity for Microsoft to extend their dominant position in the desktop and email solutions for enterprises. This is Microsoft’s only chance to secure a position in the mobile handsets (read GigaOm views on Windows Mobile). RIM’s increasing arrogance could open an opportunity for Microsoft, provided they can learn to play humble.

Personal SmartPhone segment: iPhone and Android. These two platforms are in a different league (read TechCrunch comparative) due to their coolness, rich applications and engaging user experience. With new Android models coming to close the beauty gap with the iPhone, these two are going to be the choice for people that want to enjoy the web, cool apps and multimedia everywhere. Enterprises will be reluctant to buy these gadgets for employees for some years.

Mobile Phones segment: Nokia and Samsung. This is the segment of telephones with a dial-pad, a poor camera, some multimedia features and packaged in a candy bar or clam-shell form. Still, essentially telephones with a dial-pad. Low cost, emerging countries and laggards. Nokia retains leadership. Before the Chinese vendors come, Samsung could be a good candidate for a second place, before Sony Ericsson and Motorola, provided they all survived with some other Android handsets in the other two segments.

Which ones are your bets?

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Will Internet TV Kill IPTV?

Internet TV has definitively arrived and it is here to stay. YouTube crossed the chasm for video on the Internet, and Internet TV is now steadily going mainstream. Here is some piece of evidence:

1. Lean-forward TV gets traction. Mainstream users now feel comfortable watching videos on the PC. First it was the few minutes clips, but more and more people have no issue sitting in front of the PC for long videos of one hour or more. With bigger displays, many are getting used to watching video while browsing and chatting in the same screen.
2. Broadband bandwidth keeps increasing, and video compression techniques keep decreasing bit-rates for the same quality. This trend is not going to stop any time soon.
3. PC2TV concept has not crossed the chasm, but it is easier than ever to connect small-form, silent, low power PCs to HDTV-ready LCD TV sets with DVI/HDMI connections. The Mac Mini, the Vaio TP-1 or even the EEE Box PC are easy to connect and make Internet TV enjoyable from the sofa. Wii, PS3 and Xbox360 can also make the Internet TV connection, as well as some specific set-top-boxes, such as Apple TV,  new Tivo models, or even LCD manufacturers adding an Internet connexion (see Sony Bravia Internet Video Link).

YouTube and Hulu are gaining a leading position in advertising-supported Internet TV. YouTube has reached an agreement with CBS to offer complete TV shows with inserted video ads, which is a different game from current UGC and short clips from TV shows.  On top of that, many TV channels are developing their own Internet sites to deliver Catch-Up TV, i.e. broadcast TV-shows offered on-demand. Spanish TVE site is one fine example.

If all this is already posing a serious threat to IPTV and Cable, other over-the-top players are also strongly positioning in Video-On-Demand. Apple TV, Amazon Unbox or even Netflix offers of movie downloads, compete seriously with the VoD that IPTV telcos and cable operators offer.

How can IPTV telcos fight back and win?

• Embrace Internet as another channel for their offering. Provide users with access to their subscription channels on the PC (and mobile) , with a one-stop-shop offering for catch-up TV for all channels they offer. Enrich the lean-forward TV experience on the PC screen, and add interaction to main social networks.
• HDTV. Bet on better video quality and immediacy. iTunes can offer HD movies, but it will take a while to download. IPTV streams the content and the user watches immediately. With increasing bandwidth the advantage will erode with time, but the telco can always be ahead with newer ultra HD formats.
• Content is King. Exclusive content deals make the difference. IPTV telcos should focus on Live premium content (sports events, concerts). No Internet TV player can support millions users concurrently streaming a live HD broadcast of the Super Bowl. Only multicast IPTV can cope with it.
• Manage the complexity of the Home network on behalf of the user. Bet on set-top-boxes with PVR features and open to support Internet TV, including competitors offering for video downloads. Make YouTube and iTunes just another TV channel in your catalog. Position your set-top-box in the living room before someone else does and makes yours replaceable.

IPTV is a platform for a next-generation Pay-TV service. Exclusive content and a wide offering of channels is a key success factors for IPTV, as it was for Cable/Satellite pay-TV operators. Embracing Internet TV as part of IPTV offering is another one.

Posted in Internet, Media & New Economy, TOP Popular Posts, Telecom | 4 Comments »

Judo and O’Reilly on the Financial Crisis

Tim O’Reilly published yesterday a great post on the current financial crisis. His thoughts are inspiring and an excellent guide on where to focus in times of trouble.

Here is a summary of his main points, most of which are part of an email O’Reilly sent to his employees:

• Need for robust strategies. Those are needed in good and bad times, but the strategy will be more robust if we prepare for the worst.
• Rough times are often the best times for creativity, opportunity and change.
• Great problems are also great opportunities for those who know how to solve them.

After recognizing he does not know how the crisis might affect his company, he advises his employees:

• Work on stuff that matters. If the world go to hell what would you still work on?
• Exert visionary leadership. In tough times people look for inspiration and vision.
• Focus on the “must do” things and accelerate them

Read the entire post including some illustrative examples of how this worked in the past for O’Reilly.

Judo Principles to weather the storm

O’Reilly’s advice is a wise one to sail troubled waters. How about adding the five principles below?

1. Carefully observe oneself and one’s situation, carefully observe others, and carefully observe one’s environment.
2. Seize the initiative in whatever you undertake.
3. Consider fully, act decisively.
4. Know when to stop.
5. Keep to the middle.

I find that Jigoro Kano’s Five Principles of Judo are also a very valid framework to guide us in good and (specially) in rough times.

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Two out of Three Still Choose Spouse over Blackberry

A few days ago, Sheraton announced the results of a survey they commissioned on the work habits of today’s professionals. Some of the findings:

[...] the vast majority of people (84%) say they check their PDA’s just before going to bed and as soon as they wake up, 85% say they sneak a peak at their PDA in the middle of the night, and 80% say they check their e mail before morning coffee. A whopping 87% of professionals bring their PDA into the bedroom, and in what may or may not be a related finding, more than one-third of folks surveyed (35%) say if forced to choose, they’d pick their PDA over their spouse!

I double checked to make sure the report was not issued on April Fools. The study does not provide information either of what time of the day (or night) the survey was taken, or whether respondents passed any drink test. Maybe a Mail Goggles test should have been run before accepting answers…

It is not in the report, but I am sure a high percentage would admit they also hide from their spouses to check email furtively during weekends and holidays. Isn’t that kind of cheating? 

With the impressive Blackberry Storm (the first one with a touchscreen) just announced, I am afraid American couples’ life is only going to worsen.

On a less ludicrous note, the report also highlights the freedom that these devices provide:

New technology continues to transform the way we live and work with 85% of U.S. professionals surveyed said that because of new technology, they feel compelled to be connected to work 24/7 and 81% say they work harder than they did five years ago.

[...] 85% say that PDA’s and cell phones allow them to spend more time out of the office and 79% believe they can be just as productive outside of the office [...]. Most people feel that technology gives them more quality time and flexibility with family and friends (84%) and 77% say their PDA helps them enjoy life more.

Blackberries and other smartphones with mobile email are great productivity tools and have really changed our life for better (addictions aside). The truth is once you get used to Blackberry, you can not leave without it. Well, isn’t that the definition of addiction?

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Mobile Internet Platforms: Do we need a different Web for Mobile?

Mobile Mondays dedicated its latest event in Madrid to Mobile Internet Platforms, where my good friend Alex Romero from Yahoo! presented their vision of Mobile Internet.

Mobile Internet is finally coming. Unlimited data plans and high speeds (HSDPA, EVDO) are finally enabling it. Although most 3G data traffic is still associated to Wireless Broadband, new devices as iPhone and Android are making the mobile web experience far better than ever before.

So with full browsers in the handsets, is there anything specific about Internet in mobile? For many developers of mobile apps for Android, iPhone, Symbian, Windows Mobile or Blackberry the answer is yes. If usability is important for any application in a computer, in a handset, usability is crucial due to limitations such as a smaller display, or less comfortable inputs (text or navigation). In smaller devices any click saved makes a difference. That is why applications for mobile must be smarter and be context aware (know about location, user profile, friends in social networks, time of the day, weather, personal agenda, you name it), so that clicks can be saved.

Yahoo! oneSearch is an example of a different approach to Search, specific for Mobile: Provide relevant answers instead of web links.  Do the examples in the oneSearch picture above save clicks? Would you use oneSearch on your iPhone, even if you can fully search in its Safari browser?

Posted in Internet, Telecom | No Comments »

A Talk from Ray Kurzweil

The video shows a keynote of inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil in February 2005. Despite being more than three years old, his insights remain as valid as ever.

Some of the points Mr. Kurzweil makes:

• Most new inventions fail only because of wrong timing. Not all enabling factors will be in place when needed.
• The price of Google stock in three years, or which wireless standard will win, can not be predicted.
• The cost of a MIPS or a MB of data transmitted wirelessly in 5 years can be quite accurately predicted.
• As the power of computing grows new applications will emerge to benefit from it.
• In 2020 there will be no computers as we know them today. They will be embedded into other systems, including our body.
• In 2020 computers will be able to record and reproduce emotions our nervous system.

In summary, when searching for the next breakthrough application always consider what future we are facing, what kind of computers we will have in the next 5-10 years, and more importantly what kind of problems will all this bring.

Focus on solving the problems of the future by harnessing the power of the computers of tomorrow.

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Tech-Talk.biz Becomes Disruption Matters

A few weeks from its first anniversary, tech-talk.biz becomes Disruption Matters.

The change in name stresses the increased focus this blog will have on technologies and ideas that are transforming our World. And few areas are changing it as fast as the Communications Industry and the convergence of Telecom, Internet, IT and Media.

According to Wikipedia:

A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is a term describing a technological innovation, product, or service that uses a “disruptive” strategy, rather than an “evolutionary” or “sustaining” strategy, to overturn the existing dominant technologies or status quo products in a market.

Disruptive technology (and later disruptive innovation) is a concept coined by Clayton Christensen, and widely extended in the industry after Christensen’s book The Innovator’s Dilemma.

Disruption is about creating new markets, either with discontinuous technology or with disruptive business models, and sometimes with both. Skype, the iPod, Amazon Kindle, and even the iPhone are examples of disruptive innovation, not just based on technology but also on new business models with a great product packaging.

Disruption is creating and destroying whole industries at its fastest pace in History. It deserves attention. Disruption matters today more than ever.

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