How does the Future of TV look like?

YouTube localization

YouTube localization (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Youtube turns 8 in a few days. Just a kid, but mature enough to tell us what the future of TV will look like.

According to eMarketer, in 2012 advertising spending on online video in the US was $2.9bn. A sizable market, but less than 5% of the $65bn spent on TV ads. 

Not too impressive if it were not because online video grew by 47% year on year. At that rate of growth, it would just take 8 years for online video to surpass TV ads spending. Just by the time Youtube would turn 16.

And there are reasons to believe that the 47% growth we saw this year is just accelerating, led by YouTube. Here are 3 reasons why Youtube will drive an even bigger growth:

1. Better ads.

  • Advertisers are increasing their spending.  ”YouTube is [...] home for major brand advertisers.  On YouTube, our top 100 global advertisers spent over 50% more in 2012 than they did in 2011,” they said in their last earnings call.
  • Ads are getting better both for user experience, and for brands. Advertisers like the new TrueView skippable ad format, through which they only pay if viewers watch the ad. 
  • The potential of Google to better targeting ads to user profiles and context is unmatched.

2. Better Content.

  • Growing number of Professional content available: VEVO and Liga BBVA are just two fine examples I love.
  • Perfect platform for amateurs to turn pros with an ad-based business model
  • Youtube could soon enter the paid-for-content subscription model. This hints they could start making deals for live sport events, one of the strongholds of Pay-TV operators.

3. Better Features.

  • HD at 1080p is a reality.
  • Multiscreen is a reality. Same content on mobile, tablets, PC and TV
  • Social is embedded and there are huge potential for “second screen” options that could potentially integrate better with online TV than with traditional TV

Online TV and traditional TV borders will blur. And when they do, Online has all the advantages to win.

 Milestones in Youtube early life:

  • First video uploaded (“Me at the zoo”) in April 2005
  • Google buys Youtube in October 2006
  • 720p launched in December 2008
  • One billion daily views in October 2009
  • 1080p Full HD launched in November 2009
  • 2 billion daily views in May 2010
  • Trueview ads launched in December 2010
  • 3 billion daily views in May 2011
  • 4 billion daily views in January 2012
  • First video to reach 1 billion views: Gangam Style – PSY, December 2012
  • #2 search engine (bigger than Bing, Yahoo, ASK and AOL combined)
  • 800 Million+ monthly unique visitors in January 2013
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The Reason Why Apple’s Stock Is Sliding

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See those huge growth peaks in 2008, 2010 and 2011? They are the result of two products that changed two industries forever: mobile and personal computing.

The chart just shows what’s normal when you hit a homerun with a product that shakes an entire industry:

- in 2008, it’s the iPhone 3G
- in 2010 and 2011 it’s the iPad and iPad 2

You can only get that type of growth when you launch a new product that creates a new market category by itself.
Is the current growth of “only 20%” a sign that Apple is losing its mojo? No.
Can you expect Apple to grow at 70-80% YoY as they did in the past without releasing a new breakthrough product? No.
Is there any product in the pipe with such a potential? I don’t think so. TV is in the radar, but I wouldn’t bet on it to be as big. Google/Youtube seems in better position to disrupt TV — and I don’t mean Google TV.

Apple’s stock price has dropped 35% since September, reducing in $250 billion the company’s market cap.

The market is just coming to terms with the fact that you don’t change an entire industry as big as mobile and personal computing every couple of years.  Not even if you are Apple. The growth Apple had was exceptional, and you can’t expect it to continue at that rate just with new versions of iPhones, iPads and Macs.

Anyway, a 20%+ growth YoY without any new bomb product, is a growth most companies only dream of. And Apple mindshare of higher-income customers looks intact.

 

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Big Data in 5 words

Manage Infinite Data. Get answers.

Many CIOs and CMOs may feel overwhelmed about the hype on Big Data. The sentence above gives some more clarity on top of the traditional 3Vs, that IBM even turns into four:

  • Volume : Mass quantity of data that technologies today can handle. Virtually unlimited.
  • Variety :Iintegrate and analyze data from an array of structured and un-structured data sources, including: databases, sensors, video, log files, clicks and more.
  • Velocity : High speed at which data is created, processed and analyzed, allowing for real-time answers based on real-time streaming sources.
  • Veracity :  Managing the reliability and predictability of data sources.

Here is the landscape of companies in different segments of Big Data, from Dave Feinleib for Forbes. The two layers down take care of  ”managing infinite data”. The two layers above are teh ones to “get answers.”

 

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7 Weapons of Digital Disruption

What makes digital so disrupting? These are the 7 traits of digital that may disrupt your industry. Watch out!

Disruption

Disruption (Photo credit: Tsahi Levent-Levi)

1) Zero marginal cost. Digital assets, software apps and online services have virtually zero marginal cost. That is, the cost of any additional sold unit is close to zero.

Case in point: A physical CD, newspaper, book, brochure, paper form, all of them have a cost per item. Copying an MP3, publishing a blog, distributing an ebook, filling an online form have zero marginal cost. Total costs are roughly the same for 1 download than for a million.

Impact: This is the biggest disruptor. This is the enabler of a paradigm-shift business model: freemium. Your revenue comes from a small percentage of paying customers while you give your product for free to millions of users. Why freemium?

  • Free Advertising. The bigger the customer base the bigger impact of word of mouth.
  • You occupy the market to avoid other players in the field. You create your blue ocean as you disincentive other players to enter a market you already serve for free.
  • You get feedback from more customers. That means better insight into customer needs.

The result is a winner-takes-all approach. The goal with freemium is to dominate your space. You rule your own blue ocean.

2) Infinite flexibility. Software is malleable. Unlike product updates in the physical world, in software/digital products, updates have no major impacts. There is no need to change manufacturing lines. Many digital products provide for nearly invisible updates.

Case in point: Chrome release cycle of a major version every 6 weeks is an example of how easy is to keep the product in constant evolution. Users hardly notice.

Impact: That enables the Lean Startup. That is the philosophy behind Agile software development. Years ago building software had waterfall processes that resembled manufacturing. You get requirements, you build it, you test it and you release it. Nowadays it is about shipping the product as early as possible and learn from the feedback. Ship a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) good enough to test the concept with real customers. The insights from your customer are fed into the complete product. That can’t be easily replicated in the physical world. Customers today buy digital products that keep improving well after they purchased them. e.g. mobile apps.

3) Infinite connectivity. Everyone is connected now and everything will soon be too.

Case in point: 79% of North Americans are connected to the Internet. The Internet of Things is just beginning to emerge.

Impact: That means, companies have now more data sources to learn from. That means consumers have access to infinite amounts of information. Social networks have become the way to discover, filter and share information. Today, what is remarkable, spreads like a virus. Marketing has not only gone digital, it has gone social. Never was there the potential to reach so many for so little cost. In the old days, the size of your advertisement budget was a barrier of entry to your market. Those barriers are still working, but are more and more permeable.

4) Moore’s law only accelerates the zero marginal cost of heavier and heavier digital assets, such as video. Moore’s law and cloud computing are also decreasing barriers of entry to play digital, by reducing or eliminating the upfront investment in technology infrastructure.

Case in point: This is one of the forces behind Youtube turning into profits. Serving a 1080i video costs today a fraction of what serving a 240p did cost in 2006.

Impact: Startups don’t need a big investment to launch mass market consumer digital products. Dropbox is a case in point, too. Moore’s law is also partially responsible of the rise of Big Data. Now we can Manage infinite data and get fast insights from it. CIOs, CMOs and an emerging Data Science are all about it.

5) Personalization. This is derived from infinite flexibility. Digital products can be personalized to every single customer. This is mass personalization at virtually zero cost, compared to the physical world.

Case in point: Amazon’s amazing recommendation engine, that always gets to your frontpage those items you like.

Impact: Behaviors, friends behaviors, customer profiling, all is recorded and that makes recommendation and ad engines more and more intelligent. AI combined with big data promise personalized products adapted to each customer and context. From market segmentation, to micro segmentation, to a segment of one.

6) Social Media and Crowdsourcing. The self-service model of supermarkets and restaurants, is even simpler in the digital world. Users will fill in their own data, will review products, and will share to their friends. The crowds create and share content with tribes as never before. Social Media is word-of-mouth on steroids.

Case in point: Paper Encyclopedias released Appendixes units to keep up with updates. Wikipedia is updated in real-time. Second screen: Twitter trending topics are often correlated to TV shows.

Impact: Millions of Facebook users not only personalize their experience, but create content and personalize the experience of their friends. Tripadvisor and Amazon are examples of the fundamental role of customer reviews in the decision to buy. Twitter has become the social soundtrack of TV. That means you need to monitor Social Media proactively. You need to get some clarity from the noise. What they say about your brand will not be so easy to influence with a prime-time expensive ad campaign.

7) Mobility and Ubiquity. Mobile takes the Internet and all your digital assets wherever you are. Smartphones capabilities (cameras, sensors, location, customer info) provide an array of possibilities illustrated by the nearly one million apps available in the App Store and Google Play.

Case in point: Maps applications are replacing standalone GPS devices that were only surviving because of the offline maps. With connectivity everywhere, maps in the cloud become more reliable and up-to-date than stored maps.

Impact: Consumers are more informed than ever. People can check online on the store before to help in the buying decision. They can even ask their friend’s opinions in real-time using their phone cameras. Witnesses to major news end events have become first-line reporters.

Media has already been disrupted by digital. It will not be the only industry. Healthcare, education are next. How many weapons of digital disruption are already affecting your business? Do you have a strategy to defend yourself?

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Why Google gives Android for free?

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You will find more statistics at Statista

The chart already answers why Google gives Android for free.

Google is set to dominate advertisement, in any digital form.

  • Google dominates online, which it is about to surpass print media as an industry.
  • With Android, Google is set to dominate mobile ads, whatever form it may take, beyond search and display. As eyeballs go to mobile, Google will have an advantage position by controlling the OS.
  • And TV is the next one to disrupt. Youtube might be turning to be profitable by now. The experiments in online video ads are beginning to pay off, as it shows the amount of content agreements Youtube is getting into.

Googe wants to control the underlying technology platform, so that whatever evolution digital ads go, they are at the leading edge. Chrome and Android are the most obvious cases. On2, Widevine acquisitions followed the same rationale.

Google strategy to kill competitors is also getting more and more obvious: Give for free the core value of your competitor.

  • Google Apps against Microsoft Office
  • Chrome and Chrome OS, to make the OS irrelevant, as all apps run in the browser.
  • Android against Apple iOS

Digital advertisement, powered by Google, is one of the biggest enablers of the Digital Renaissance. Google enables both publishers and advertisers of any size to benefit from online advertisement. They are one of the biggest ‘patrons of the arts’ for the long tail.

Highlight data points in the chart:
Mobile ads market in US is $4 bn in 2012. Facebook managed to get $339m, even if they just started mobile ads this year.

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How is Internet Re-imagining the World?

Fantastic slide-pack with Internet trends and a lot of cases of Internet re-imagining many different things.

From Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers

 

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M2M: What is the threat for telcos?

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M2M is not taking off as fast as operators would like.
But the threat for them is not about failing to reach billions of devices talking to each other, as M2M promises. That will surely happen. The threat for telcos is that they might not be the ones to control and manage them.

Cheap WiFi modules combined with the nature of IP make Over-the-Top solutions as effective as any other, if not more. For customers, OTT has the advantage not to lock them to a single connectivity service provider.

Telcos know it. More and more, they will have to do as DoCoMo just did, and aim to play over-the-top. It is the right move. Telefonica has done it in other domains with Telefonica Digital by creating a new umbrella brand called Tu, for over-the-top communications services.

The point is not that telcos cannot rule in M2M. The point is that it is unlikely you do, if you just focus on locking M2M Service with Connectivity, as telcos did in the days of voice and VAS.

 

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