The future of Adobe Flash is in the hands of Google.

Apple’s reluctance to support Flash on the iPhone and the iPad is putting tremendous pressure on the future of Adobe’s ubiquitous platform, present in 98% of browsers worldwide.

The Adobe Flash Player  is the engine behind 99% of  Video in the web. Adobe Flash Player 10.1, soon to be released, was supposed to take Flash Player dominance together with online video to mobile handsets. But Google and Apple insistence in an Open Web with HTML5 native video (among other capabilities) that make Flash irrelevant can ruin Adobe’s plans. Apple bet of non supporting Flash even on the iPad shows they are pretty determined to kill Flash.

Abobe is going from being the ‘good guy’ that enabled video on the Web, to the ‘bad guy’ that imposes proprietary technology and that crashes browsers too often. Is Flash doomed to die then? It is up to Google.

Apple and Google close romance is turning to an end as both turn to competitors rather than friends in smartphones, office applications, browsers, OS, and soon in tablets and ebooks.

With Chrome OS now targeting the trendy tablet feast too, the support of Flash Player on Chrome OS and Android can give an edge over Apple’s rivals.  Having all video on the web on Google powered smarphones and tablets, that would be a huge advantage to Google.

But Google could also well decide to stick to its principles and go full speed on the HTML5 open web vision, shared with Apple. If Google moves all YouTube content to HTML5, who on Earth is not going to install an HTML5 browser? Even the stubborn IE6 laggards would finally wake up and change. How long would it take for other web video properties to move to HTML5 and drop Flash?

Update: Good ZDNet post on the HTML vs. Flash war.

Update 2: Good explanation on Gizmodo about HTML5 and Flash

Update 3: Great post on TechCrunch on the Future of Web Content

Finally it’s here. The much rumored Apple Tablet came to life as the iPad.

The iPad is an iPhone “on steroids”. Same look, same great multitouch user interface, but a bigger screen make web browsing, reading ebooks, gaming or watching video so much better.

The price, starting at $499 is a great (good) surprise, and it aims at killing the revolution of 2008: the netbook.
Amazon Kindle, is the other suspect under threat, with the only advantage of the e-ink “not-hurting-your-eyes” for heavy readers (as well as cheaper ebooks…)

The only missing thing ont he iPad: lack of flash will not let you enjoy Hulu and other online video. Else, it could have even been a great potable Set-top-”pad” (not quite set-top-box) to bring online video to the TV set, as a secondary use.

Now, let’s wait for what Google and partners will bring to counter-attack later this year…

If you are looking for inspiration for your New Year’s Resolutions, this is your book and it is free. Seth Godin has put together the eBook ‘What Matters Now’, with micro-essays from influential authors like Tom Peters, Chris Anderson, Tim O’Reilly, Guy Kawasaki, Joi Ito and many more.

Download it here or from Seth Godin’s post introducing the eBook.

If the rumors about Apple’s upcoming “iPad” are true, prepare for the next revolution after the iPhone. Jeremy Horwitz says the iPad could have a 10.7″ screen with an iPhone 3G-like design, runs iPhone OS, will come in two flavors with and without 3G, 720p resolution and with all media, gaming, eBook and web functionality of the iPhone.

As the rumor goes, Apple would announce it in January 2010 and ship in May-June.

Why would the iPad be revolutionary?

Ever heard about Multiscreen? So far the media industry talked about Multiscreen referring to “the Three Screens”: TV, PC and Mobile. Even Nielsen, the reference company for audience measurements, publishes its quarterly ” Three Screens Report”, tracking media consumption on TV, PC and Mobile. The latest report coincidentally highlights the increase in ¨multitasking¨, that is, web browsing while watching TV (57% of consumers does it at least once a month).

An iPad would be a device ideal for “multitasking”, where the multiscreen concept shifts to multiple screens at the same time, enriching how media in consumed. Expect some apps to turn the iPad into a Multimedia Remote Control, where you can navigate through the Program Guide (EPG) and choose what to see. Zapping could be done on the iPad, previewing the channels without annoying all the family changing channels on the main TV. Broadcast of live Sports events are also ideal to have the iPad as a secondary screen to access stats, classification, players profile, replays  or multiple view angles, with simple finger controls. Not too mention interactive TV applications, with much richer interaction on a tablet than on any current form of remote controls.

The iPad is also an ideal portable screen for video, for web browsing, for home automation remote control and as the eBook reader that Amazon must be scared about.

More on the iPad:
Rebooting the Book (One Apple iPad Tablet at a Time) – O’Reilly Radar
IPad Rumors Abound! Apple To Announce On January 19! Device Shipping In May! – TechCrunch
The coming tablet wars – TechCrunch

Internet and the Digital Revolution has transformed Media… and this is just starting. If not convinced, see the clip above.

I came back from Taipei, and instead of an Asus Eee Box I dreamt about, I got a much cheaper box with much better specs: the Acer Aspire Revo. For around  180 Euro this is what I got:

• Intel Atom 230 1.6GHz
• 2GB DDR2 RAM
• 250 GB HDD
• nVidia ION Integrated with HDMI
• Wifi b/g/draft-N
• 6 USB ports, 1 eSATA, 1 SD-HC card reader, 1 Gigabit Ethernet port
• Wireless Keyboard and Mouse
• Linux RevoBoot

A pretty good price for what is inside this box. The Linux RevoBoot is not a serious distro. It is just provided to be easily replaced by whatever OS you plan to install.

I did install a Windows 7 RC on the HDD, and an XMBC Live on a SD-HC card. By pressing F12 at start up, you can choose which OS to boot from. Connected to a 50″ LCD screen through HDMI at 1080p, it looks pretty cool as a STB.

In order to enjoy HD video payed from this box, it is important to know that the Media Player software needs to be capable to use the hardware video acceleration, that is, able to off-load video decoding tasks to the nVidia ION GPU. The Intel Atom 230 processor by itself will not be able to decode HD smoothly without losing frames.

As of today that means that:

- On Windows, the media player must support DVXA (DirectX Video Acceleration):
Windows Media Player supports DVXA ONLY for Windows Media Video. A popular player like VLC, does NOT support DVXA. Boxee for Windows does not support DVXA either. I did installed Media Player Classic – Home Cinema, which supports video acceleration for h264, the codec normally used in Matroska popular HD video downloads.

- On Linux, the media player must support VDPAU (Video Decode and Presentation API for UNIX), which is the case for MPlayer ot MythTV, and specially by the XBMC Media Center and Boxee, the favorites media centers of the Linux crowd.

Unfortunately Flash does NOT support HW acceleration, and that means that most online video does NOT play totally smooth on the Revo.  Adobe and nVidia are said to be working on it.

All in all, a good box to attach to your LCD TV and control with the wireless keyboard and mouse from the sofa. Great performance as a Media Center for your media library, but with shortcomings to enjoy online video on your TV.

This is the main drawback of boxes like the Revo and the Eee Box with an Atom processor that has trouble playing Flash video encoded in h264. A Mac Mini, woudl not have that problem, but it would cost 3 times the price.

Another thing to note is the poor Wireless-N performance of the Revo. If you do not have Ethernet wiring to your living room, you’d better budget for HomePlug adapters instead of a Wireless-N router upgrade.

I will be in Taiwan in a few days, and I do not plan to leave without one of these boxes. I already posted about it. The newest Asus Eee Box is a great product. Small-form that can be (VESA) mounted on the back of the TV, quiet, low power, Wifi-n for true multimedia without wires, HDMI and SPDIF output…  and it is much more affordable than a Mac Mini.

I have not found any cons yet. And what’s more, see the video clip for the Eee Stick, the killer accesory to control the Eee Box from the sofa.

Install the Boxee version for Windows XP, or simply “tune-in” into http://www.youtube.com/xl for your Online Video experience on the TV.

Google has announced the acquisition of On2, the company that owns some of the video compression codecs widely used in online video, but that were recently losing ground in favor of h.264.

Why is Google spending $106 million in purchasing the owner of  decaying codecs?

1) Google has high hopes for HTML5, a standard set to handle video natively (i.e. there will a a <video> tag, as there is a <img> tag for pictures now, and no plugin will be required for the browser to play a video, unlike the plugins required now for flash, Windows Media or Real Audio). If Google open-sources the coming VP8 codec from On2, and forces it into  HTML5,  it would seriously hit Adobe Flash and Microsoft Silverlight proprietary strategies in favor of an open HTML5. Google can put a lot of pressure by incorporating VP8 into Chrome and migrating YouTube to support it.

2) Owning a video codec technology, as online video becomes King in the Web. Although h.264 is an open standard licensed by MPEGLA, Microsoft owns their own propriety Windows Media codecs. Imaging Windows introducing ad insertion, or search within videos, or interactive video objects within the video coding technology ahead of others. What would be the effect to Google’s search and advertising “bread and butter” in a video-centric Web? Can you imagine Google paying licenses to archrival Microsoft?

3) Is $106m too much? Google might be making the simple maths? What would be the impact on their market cap, if Microsoft releases a video codec with ad/search features? What would be the impact on Microsoft stock if Google is able to master the video codec technology and do that first? Note that just the announcement of this acquisition make Adobe shares drop 3.5%!!

It is not the saving in licenses or bandwith what drives this acquisition. This is about strategy, defending from Microsoft, and taking control of its own future. Google will not make direct revenue from this $106m acquisition, but if it succeeds in getting VP8 widely adopted into HTML5, they are going to be better positioned that anyone to defend their Advertising and Search business in video too.

Online 3D video, interactive objects within video, search within video contents. All that will come and Google wants to be the one to bring it and not depend on standard bodies, or worse,  its major competitor.

Coverage of this news by other blogs:

TechCrunch, Google Acquires Video Compression Technology Company On2 For $106 Million

GigaOM, Google: You Buy Some, You Sell Some

NewTeevee, Watch Out, Flash; Google Buys On2

StreamingMedia.com, Google’s Acquisition Of On2 Not A Big Deal, Here’s Why

It is more than one motnh ago that I was in CommunicAsia  for a Mobile TV panel. Here are the main points we discussed about how to make the business case for Mobile TV work.

• Free-to-Air channels are a must to drive adoption of Mobile TV into the mainstream, as Japan One Seg, Korea T-DMB and even the DVB-H Italian case show. More than 20 million Japanese watch TV on a phone. As of today, 85 % of the new handsets sold in Japan have a One Seg tuner. Even the iPhone has an One Seg tuner accesory (see picture)
• “Free” creates a large audience that can be monetized through subscriptions, advertisement and transactions (VOD, Catch-up TV, cross-selling). It is the economics of free, common in Internet and Software, applied to Mobile TV.
• There is a need for a next-gen Mobile TV that puts together Broadcast and Unicast technologies. Broadcast enables FTA channels at zero marginal cost (it is the same cost to serve one customer than one million) and it is efficient for premium mass audience channels like sports channels. Meantime, Unicast provides unlimited number of channels for premium, niche/long tail, VOD and catch-up TV that can be monetize as subscriptions or pay-per-download. The 3G network also enables interactive services, like EPGs, audience monitoring, interactive ads, or interactions with social network (see what my friend watch, or “watch and chat”), that give extra chance for monetization.
• Focus on high-end devices, like iPhone or ones with TV tuners. Early adopters of these devices are the same early adopters that will watch TV on a mobile. It is a waste to support a large number of mid-range or low-end devices. Mobile TV has not crossed the chasm yet.

Some other curious facts and learning from the Japanese One Seg: Mobile TV experience:

NHK Study: Where people watch mobile TV?
1) At home in a room wo TV 38%, 2) At work/school 26%, 3)While bathing 24% – On train goes in 7th place (17%) tied with at home in a room with a TV!
=>  There are more use cases than just watching TV on the train…

DIMSDRIVE research for Japan:
What people like about Mobile TV: 1) Anywhere, 2) free, 3) simple
What they do not like: 1) Battery, 2) don’t need to watch TV outside, 3) do not want to watch TV on a phone