Category Archives: FictionPrediction

Online Movies 2019

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In 2019, while Music downloads are mostly free, people is ready to pay for Movie downloads.

The Music industry has changed in the past ten years and artists make their work known by distributing it for free. Their revenues come from fans fees, live performances, merchandising, ad endorsements and downloads of live concert videos.

Movie producers maintain theaters as their main source of revenue, but they also cash on HD downloads, at a few dollars each, and TV-rights from Pay-TV broadcasters. TV movie channels have survived due to the high number of people that still find “zapping” as the way to discover what to watch this evening.

With set-top-boxes powered by 128 cores CPUs, 250 GB RAM and flash drives of  32 TB, fed by a broadband connection of 8 Gbps, the premium content is now delivered in Ultra-HD at 4320p with 20.2 audio channels and 60 frames per second. HDTV 1080p is the standard quality, except from some lower resolution user-generated-content sites at 720p.

The Immersive Game Consoles just announced promise to deliver a new genre of  immersive games, but also immersive movies and immersive communications within a 3D virtual reality environment.

TV shows continue to be ad sponsored, and also available streamed from the Net with the option to download them for only $0.99,  free from inserted and overlay ads. 

The cash cows for Pay-TV operators are live sport events, broadcasted in HD and Ultra-HD and enriched with interactive features like multiple-angles and “watch-with-friends”. 3D VR immersive live events broadcasts are not available yet, but it will come in the next ten years before 2030.

This post is a fictitious prediction of what could be written about online video and movies in ten years from now. I can not guarantee it will happen but I am ready to take bets of $1.29, $0.99 or $0.69

 

Music 2019

Ten years ago the RIAA fought the decrease in sales of music CDs by different means, including: taking their customers to court, lobbying to have the ISPs stopping Internet Access to anyone who shared music files, and imposing taxes to any device able to store or play music, assuming everyone was in piracy.

Ten years later, all these actions from RIAA seem ridiculous. In 2019 music is no longer sold in discs or in any physical format. All music is distributed online and, to what would have been a surprise for RIAA in 2009, for free. Artist distribute their tracks freely online, and encourage their fans to share them with their friends.

Social Networks like Facebook, MySpace, uTube and Amazon.net play now a central role in the music industry. All artists compete for attention and try to influence others to become fans. Becoming a fan of a band gives the user access to their songs, to their music videos and to buy their merchandise online.

Artists get the ad revenues from their sites, and more substantial revenues for the $0.99 monthly fees that the SuperFans (premium fans) pay to have access to exclusive content around artists, such as interviews, live chats,  or clips behind the scenes. Superfans enjoy other benefits, including discounts in tickets for live concerts.

In 2019, the labels and the RIAA have almost disappeared, and artists now deal directly with their audience, thanks to the social network platforms that manage the SuperFans subscriptions, as well as the online purchases.

Now there is a huge amount of semiprofessional artists that generate some revenues from their creations. Still there are a few celebrity artists that command hundreds of thousands of SuperFans.

Music did survive the era of the Recording Labels. The new Online Music era is more democratic in who gets the attention, and has removed inefficient intermediaries between artists and fans.

Cartoon found via Wired.com

This post is a prediction of what could be written in ten years from now about the Music Industry. Soon another post about Movies in 2019.

Wireless Energy Transmission for my Laptop

When will my laptop be totally wireless, even to recharge the battery? The future might be sooner than we thought, and Nanotechnology will be part of it.

There are many types of Wireless Energy Transmission although none of them have gone further than a prototype. For home use, powerbeaming could be the technology to free our portable devices from wires. Powerbeaming works based on a Laser system at one end that beams to a Solar Cell at the other end that transforms light into a DC current.

Current lasers have a 30-60% efficiency that combined with a 40-50% efficiency of solar cells, brings the overall efficiency at a maximum of 30%, still not too bad compared with electric bulbs. But Nanotechnology might boost these efficiencies at both ends.  

Solid-state lightning  promises up to 100% efficiency to convert electricity into light, once that we have atomically precise manufacturing technologies to arrange light-emitting building blocks in a controlled manner.

Today’s CIGS, CdTE or thin-film silicon are bringing down prices of Solar Cells. The ability to manufacture defect-free nanomaterials would improve efficiency at an exponential rate. With laptops foreseen to be equipped with solar cells in less than 10 years, solid-state lightning beams could be a wireless replacement to a wall socket.

 Picture from Wikipedia: NASA prototype of lightweight plane powered by a laser beam and a solar cell.

Microsoft Apocalypse 2018

April 2018. DIGooGle makes popular a GigaCrunch post: Microsoft Apocalypse

Vista was the beginning of the end. A few years after its launch, the debacle was inevitable. First the SMEs and SOHO abandoned Microsoft when it stopped Windows XP support. By that time Google had launched G-Enterprise, consisting of Google Apps + Skype Enterprise Edition + Salesforce.com + Goobuntu Enterprise Desktop + Android Nomad Office. To this package companies could add Google Shared Drive, as a common network storage, and Apps Engine to develop the company Intranets, Extranets and any company web application.

SMEs, fed up with Microsoft tyranny on expensive licenses for  Windows, Office and Exchange,  moved to G-Enterprise. Not only companies saved licenses, but also increased productivity, shifting employees mindset to use network collaborative tools like Google Docs, Salesforce or Skype. Meantime, the Cloud on which these tools resided was safely managed by Google. Microsoft SaaS offering came too late, and no one trusted Hotmail as a serious email for work.

Multinationals followed the G-Enterprise trend some years later, hitting severely Microsoft licenses sales, with the Server segment already dominated by Linux.

On the consumer front, Apple ended being the winner. After some Microsoft viral campaigns that destroyed Microsoft image, consumers were embarrassed of admitting they had been fooled to buy Vista. Apple got even more iconic and stylish, and not having a Macbook or an iMac just meant you were not in. Some teenagers issued (and won) lawsuits against their parents for the emotional damage of forcing them to use a Windows PC instead of a Mac. Linux still commanded some market share, thanks to LinuxMCE, mainly used by lovers of P2P file-sharing free content. Linux remained the warranty for freedom against any monopolistic move from Apple.

Such was the hit taken by Microsoft with its loss of licenses income, that it was forced to split and sell its two profitable businesses: 

  • first the gaming business went to Google that transformed the console into Gbox360 featuring targeted advertisement within the games, 
  • then the on-line business, branded Yahoo Live, went to News Corp, that had already acquired Facebook years before

Microsoft software license business was finally acquired by IBM, still nostalgic of a decision they should have made 40 years earlier. Microsoft was merged within IBM Lotus division, that surprisingly still managed to sell to banks. Windows was renamed OS2 Warp Second Edition, and IBM licensed it to Lenovo PCs and Thinkpads.

A sad ending for a company that transformed the world with its software.

Note: This fiction prediction might not come true. We expect Microsoft puts the means to avoid it.