Category Archives: Disruption

7 Weapons of Digital Disruption

What makes digital so disrupting? These are the 7 traits of digital that may disrupt your industry. Watch out!

Disruption

Disruption (Photo credit: Tsahi Levent-Levi)

1) Zero marginal cost. Digital assets, software apps and online services have virtually zero marginal cost. That is, the cost of any additional sold unit is close to zero.

Case in point: A physical CD, newspaper, book, brochure, paper form, all of them have a cost per item. Copying an MP3, publishing a blog, distributing an ebook, filling an online form have zero marginal cost. Total costs are roughly the same for 1 download than for a million.

Impact: This is the biggest disruptor. This is the enabler of a paradigm-shift business model: freemium. Your revenue comes from a small percentage of paying customers while you give your product for free to millions of users. Why freemium?

  • Free Advertising. The bigger the customer base the bigger impact of word of mouth.
  • You occupy the market to avoid other players in the field. You create your blue ocean as you disincentive other players to enter a market you already serve for free.
  • You get feedback from more customers. That means better insight into customer needs.

The result is a winner-takes-all approach. The goal with freemium is to dominate your space. You rule your own blue ocean.

2) Infinite flexibility. Software is malleable. Unlike product updates in the physical world, in software/digital products, updates have no major impacts. There is no need to change manufacturing lines. Many digital products provide for nearly invisible updates.

Case in point: Chrome release cycle of a major version every 6 weeks is an example of how easy is to keep the product in constant evolution. Users hardly notice.

Impact: That enables the Lean Startup. That is the philosophy behind Agile software development. Years ago building software had waterfall processes that resembled manufacturing. You get requirements, you build it, you test it and you release it. Nowadays it is about shipping the product as early as possible and learn from the feedback. Ship a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) good enough to test the concept with real customers. The insights from your customer are fed into the complete product. That can’t be easily replicated in the physical world. Customers today buy digital products that keep improving well after they purchased them. e.g. mobile apps.

3) Infinite connectivity. Everyone is connected now and everything will soon be too.

Case in point: 79% of North Americans are connected to the Internet. The Internet of Things is just beginning to emerge.

Impact: That means, companies have now more data sources to learn from. That means consumers have access to infinite amounts of information. Social networks have become the way to discover, filter and share information. Today, what is remarkable, spreads like a virus. Marketing has not only gone digital, it has gone social. Never was there the potential to reach so many for so little cost. In the old days, the size of your advertisement budget was a barrier of entry to your market. Those barriers are still working, but are more and more permeable.

4) Moore’s law only accelerates the zero marginal cost of heavier and heavier digital assets, such as video. Moore’s law and cloud computing are also decreasing barriers of entry to play digital, by reducing or eliminating the upfront investment in technology infrastructure.

Case in point: This is one of the forces behind Youtube turning into profits. Serving a 1080i video costs today a fraction of what serving a 240p did cost in 2006.

Impact: Startups don’t need a big investment to launch mass market consumer digital products. Dropbox is a case in point, too. Moore’s law is also partially responsible of the rise of Big Data. Now we can Manage infinite data and get fast insights from it. CIOs, CMOs and an emerging Data Science are all about it.

5) Personalization. This is derived from infinite flexibility. Digital products can be personalized to every single customer. This is mass personalization at virtually zero cost, compared to the physical world.

Case in point: Amazon’s amazing recommendation engine, that always gets to your frontpage those items you like.

Impact: Behaviors, friends behaviors, customer profiling, all is recorded and that makes recommendation and ad engines more and more intelligent. AI combined with big data promise personalized products adapted to each customer and context. From market segmentation, to micro segmentation, to a segment of one.

6) Social Media and Crowdsourcing. The self-service model of supermarkets and restaurants, is even simpler in the digital world. Users will fill in their own data, will review products, and will share to their friends. The crowds create and share content with tribes as never before. Social Media is word-of-mouth on steroids.

Case in point: Paper Encyclopedias released Appendixes units to keep up with updates. Wikipedia is updated in real-time. Second screen: Twitter trending topics are often correlated to TV shows.

Impact: Millions of Facebook users not only personalize their experience, but create content and personalize the experience of their friends. Tripadvisor and Amazon are examples of the fundamental role of customer reviews in the decision to buy. Twitter has become the social soundtrack of TV. That means you need to monitor Social Media proactively. You need to get some clarity from the noise. What they say about your brand will not be so easy to influence with a prime-time expensive ad campaign.

7) Mobility and Ubiquity. Mobile takes the Internet and all your digital assets wherever you are. Smartphones capabilities (cameras, sensors, location, customer info) provide an array of possibilities illustrated by the nearly one million apps available in the App Store and Google Play.

Case in point: Maps applications are replacing standalone GPS devices that were only surviving because of the offline maps. With connectivity everywhere, maps in the cloud become more reliable and up-to-date than stored maps.

Impact: Consumers are more informed than ever. People can check online on the store before to help in the buying decision. They can even ask their friend’s opinions in real-time using their phone cameras. Witnesses to major news end events have become first-line reporters.

Media has already been disrupted by digital. It will not be the only industry. Healthcare, education are next. How many weapons of digital disruption are already affecting your business? Do you have a strategy to defend yourself?

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Why Google gives Android for free?

mobile-advertising-forecast
You will find more statistics at Statista

The chart already answers why Google gives Android for free.

Google is set to dominate advertisement, in any digital form.

  • Google dominates online, which it is about to surpass print media as an industry.
  • With Android, Google is set to dominate mobile ads, whatever form it may take, beyond search and display. As eyeballs go to mobile, Google will have an advantage position by controlling the OS.
  • And TV is the next one to disrupt. Youtube might be turning to be profitable by now. The experiments in online video ads are beginning to pay off, as it shows the amount of content agreements Youtube is getting into.

Googe wants to control the underlying technology platform, so that whatever evolution digital ads go, they are at the leading edge. Chrome and Android are the most obvious cases. On2, Widevine acquisitions followed the same rationale.

Google strategy to kill competitors is also getting more and more obvious: Give for free the core value of your competitor.

  • Google Apps against Microsoft Office
  • Chrome and Chrome OS, to make the OS irrelevant, as all apps run in the browser.
  • Android against Apple iOS

Digital advertisement, powered by Google, is one of the biggest enablers of the Digital Renaissance. Google enables both publishers and advertisers of any size to benefit from online advertisement. They are one of the biggest ‘patrons of the arts’ for the long tail.

Highlight data points in the chart:
Mobile ads market in US is $4 bn in 2012. Facebook managed to get $339m, even if they just started mobile ads this year.

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Is this the End of the Smartphone Era?

When Nicholas Carlson wrote that the end of the smartphone era is coming, he overstated the comment I made to his post the day before. He had asked his readers whether Sailfish OS was the next big platform. I answered:

DOA. I bet the next big platform won’t look like a phone.

That sparked Nicholas’ imagination and the next day he came with his post: The end of the smartphone era is coming.

Is this the end of the Smartphone era?

Of course not. The point is not that the smartphone era is close to its end. The point is that to disrupt a market taken by iOS and Android, you’d better come with something radically different. Else you have no chance. If you are able to wow consumers into a new platform, it won’t be a phone.

The next platform will not look like a phone.

Google knows it and that’s why they lead the pack to explore what the next step will be. Google Glass is the most visible example. Watches and other wearable computer gadgets will surely spark your imagination. You could argue those things are not new, but hey the Tablet was not a new concept and it was not a reality until Apple made it happen. Glass today is not compelling enough, but if they fix a few things, I would bet it will. Maybe that’s why Microsoft reportedly issued a patent application for a similar concept.

The platform that ends the smartphone era is still unknown. For sure, it’s more likely to look like Glass that than a phone.

If you were wondering to wait until next Xmas to renew your smartphone, no need to.

How different you have to be to beat iOS and Android?

Samsung Note was a perfect example of how to make something different from the iPhone riding on the wave that people talk less and less and write, read, listen, watch or take pictures much more.

Amazon was disruptive in the business model. They sell the Kindle Fire at a loss, because they are in the content distribution business.

But Windows Phone and Blackberry. Sorry guys, so far you are just changing colors, and have no chance unless you come with something that breaks the rules again. Maybe RIM could keep exploring keyboard and variants: Many of us still complain about typing on an iPhone compared to how good it was to type on a Blackberry.

Any other new platform like Meego/Sailfish cannot just bet on being more open than Android. Android is open enough. But hey it is good for us consumers that someone keeps Google honest in not being evil.

How did disruption look in the past?

During years, Nokia kept doing telephones with a dial pad, despite you make most calls from your address books, and despite the huge growth of texting. RIM, Microsoft PDA-phones had already moved a step forward, though it was Apple who reinvented the phone.

The iPhone was a totally disrupting concept with a ‘wowing’ UI and a breakthrough decent mobile internet experience, that had nothing to do with horrendous WAP or Brew.

In short: The end of the smartphone era is not coming (soon)

You are happy with your iPhone or your Galaxy, and just wonder whether this is the end of the smartphone era. It is not.

 

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How does Disruption look like in Print Media

Not because you already anticipated it, it’s less of a dramatic picture. The chart from Statista shows the result of how technology reinvents industries.

In 2004, Google’s $3Bn business seemed nothing compared to a $70Bn industry. Only eight years later, Google is bigger than the entire Print Media business in US.

A single company — let’s call it the disruptor— is worth more than the entire industry it disrupts, in less than a decade!

Though it is the company that gets more attacks from the newspaper and magazine industry, Google was not the only one driving the change.

  • Some years ago when you wanted to sell a car or a house, there was one obvious place to advertise: Newspapers. Nowadays you would only think of eBay, Craigslist or Carlist.
  • Bloggers were the first to grab readers from traditional media, though Google Adsense dollars helped here.
  • Then came the big social media boom with Facebook and Twitter attracting eyeballs from other media.
  • And finally, also contributing to the decline in offline revenue, Print Media has gone online, though they have not been too enthusiastic about exchanging “paper ads dollars by online cents.”

Print and online magazine advertising spending in the U.S. from 2010 to 2016
You will find more statistics at Statista

After disruption, is the resulting market smaller or bigger?
U.S. Print Media went from a $72bn peak in 2006 to $42bn in 2011. Where has all that money gone? Online, right?

According to GroupM, online ad revenue in US in 2011 was $34.5Bn (*). You make the numbers and that means that the size of Print Media + Online combined add to $76Bn. Around same market size as in 2006.

Roughly, you could conclude the combined market of “disrupted + disrupting” has not de-materialized the industry.

Jobs: A collateral damage of disruption?
The most visible effect in jobs is the change in skills and preparation. New jobs online require more preparation than those in the old industry. And for sure they need different skills.

Disruption due to new technologies often creates inflation in preparation. The lowest rank worker in the new industry will require far more preparation than in the previous one. E.g. Less skilled jobs like printing operation or distribution are replaced by technology. If you are a junior journalist you are now in the lower ranks, in the sense that the jobs less skilled than yours are all replaced by technology. You need much more preparation to be a journalist than to be a guy in the distribution chain.

On the other hand, a system like Adsense enables a bigger crowd to benefit from advertising. Now if you are a junior journalist you can join the Long Tail of  bloggers and be self-employed. Online ads, combined with indie publishing, are the foundation of the Digital Renaissance we live in.

How does print media respond to that?
Sadly enough, we have the example of France, where print media lobbies politicians to tax the innovator, in order to protect the status quo and delay the inevitable. As RIAA already demonstrated in the music industry, trying to stop change with lawsuits is not the best way to deal with disruption.

* Google makes 95% of revenues from Ads and U.S. represents 46% of their worldwide business. As Google reportedly has 44% market share in U.S. online ads, numbers are consistent.
Global online advertisement spending in 2011
You will find more statistics at Statista

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Connecting the dots: Why the iPod changed the world?

Via Business Insider.

“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards.”
                   Steve Jobs, Stanford Commencement Address, 2005

In 2006 it was clear that mobile phones and MP3 players would converge. Nokia, the smartphone leader at the time, already incorporated mp3 players in their phones. In Japan, KDDI had the most advanced mobile music service in the world, selling millions of songs per month downloaded from mobile phones.

For Apple, the iPod was at risk. At that time the iPod had become the product that had turned around Apple. iPods were more than 50% of Apple’s revenues in 2006 — see chart. Nokia was set to go for the iPod. Apple had to defend. The iPhone development was a matter of survival. Eat or be eaten.

Before the iPhone was unveiled in 2007, anyone would have bet that handset makers (and telcos) were in better place to win the race for the converged phone/MP3 player.
Few would have bet that a company with no experience in mobile would succeed to put a solid product in place so quick. In the early 2000s all main handset makers came from telecom vendors: Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, Alcatel, Motorola, NEC coped the top of the charts. Even Sony had to join forces with Ericsson to play in the field. Microsoft venture into smartphones had given expensive and unstable smartphones after many years of experience with PDAs.

Then the genius of Steve Jobs made it. Leveraging on Apple’s core competency in making computers, they made a leapfrog. With no legacy to respect, unlike Nokia.

Today the iPhone is more than 50% of Apple’s revenue. It was the stepping stone without which the iPad had not had the form and success it had in changing personal computing forever.

The iPod today is less that 5% of Apple’s revenues. It went from 50% in 2006 to less than 5% in 2012. Had Apple failed to win the battle for the convergent phone/Mp3 player, Apple would have not even survived with a leading product such as the iPod.

It’s the perfect model for a market dominant player to lead disruption. It was the leader in the MP3 segment who drove its cannibalization and won. Cannibalize to survive. Easier said than done.

Connecting the dots
If Jobs wouldn’t have bet on the iPod—which at the time was not an obvious product for a computer maker—, Apple would not have been in such a good position to enter mobile and reinvent it. And without the iPhone experience, the iPad wouldn’t have been the hit that has changed personal computing. In hindsight, without the iPod, the tablet might have not existed as we know it.

 

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Will Google Glasses Cross the Chasm?

Less than one day since Google released their Project Glass video, everyone is talking about it. The objective is met. People talk about augmented reality, immersive apps, wearable computing… People even make fun videos of it.

Since Google wants to start a conversation, here are my views:

- Why not a Shades form-factor?. No matter how many photos of pretty models you show, even early adopters will hesitate to go out with that thing on their faces without disguise. One of the glasses killer apps is to ‘secretly’ remind you the name of the person you just bumped into — but it has to be ‘secret’, you need the privacy of sunglasses! By the way,  you would mostly wear them while walking in the street, just as you do with shades.

- Spoken commands are a show-stopper. How many people do you see in the street talking to Siri? I can imagine people having a chat with Siri in the car, far less while walking. You need Thought and Eye control to go mainstream. Didn’t IBM say we are not that far from that?

- Only measured by the interest raised, Google, please pursue by all means! You will get there!! And you will get people to finally upload to G+!! (just kidding)

Once more, Google, you have captured our imagination, just as you did with your self-driving car. Awesome! Thanks for inspiring us into the future.

 

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Disruption: Technology or Business Model? Definitively, not Laws

Kindle books have now overtaken paperback books as the most popular format on Amazon.com, according to the quarterly results just released.

  • For every 100 paperback sold, Amazon sold 115 Kindle books
  • For every 100 hardcover sold, Amazon sold 300 Kindle books
  • The Kindle store has over 810,000 ebooks
  • 670,000 ebooks are priced at $9.99 or less

In just 3 years, Amazon has taken the eBook from nothing to mainstream. Amazon has managed to take the book transition to digital without suffering the pain the music labels went through with mp3. How did they do it? First, with a great device, the iPod of the ebooks. Second, no fear to cannibalize their own business. Third, force publishers to accept the $9.99 price policy. Same recipe as the iTunes ”take it or leave it” $0.99 a song.

Amazon and Apple set the example of companies taking advantage of technology to drive new business models that are changing industries. The Netflix $7.99 a month all-you-can-stream is another bold proposition for consumers, that is shaking the Pay-TV industry.

The right offer for digital content at the right price is not only changing industries in US. It is also driving piracy down. Meantime countries like France, UK and Spain struggle with nonsense laws that not only are useless against piracy, but that are also stopping the development of a legal digital content market.

Legislators in Europe should stop making laws to preserve the status quo. Else US companies will have total domination of digital media by the time old Europe reacts.