We can call it the “delayed” disruption. It has 3 phases, that can be illustrated in the chart above showing the decline of postal mail volume.
1. Hyped Prediction. End of 90s with the Internet boom, people predict that the end of mail will soon happen.
2. False Reality. A few years later in 2005, people say mail will never die, all the opposite Internet is increasing the use of postal services, as the growth in mail volume shows.
3. Disruptive change. The hyped predictions become a reality, and mail drops in free fall.
The same can be said of CD sales, newspaper and magazines, and soon will be said of ebooks.
And the same is happening on TV and Internet TV, as the recent debate on the Future of TV shows, when voices say that TV is weathering the Online Video storm better than Music or Newspapers. The good news for TV is that hey have some precedent cases they can learn from and adapt. But the disruption will come… only maybe a bit later.